CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Aug 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The lone spotted region on the disk, Region
2401 (S11E04, Cso/beta) showed signs of decay and was relatively quiet.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on available LASCO coronagraph
imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (17-19 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 1441 pfu observed at 17/0310 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels over the next three days (17-19 Aug). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft remained enhanced
following the departure of the 12 Aug CME due to effects from a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds
gradually increased from about 550 km/s to near 580 km/s. Total field
strength reached a peak of 11 nT early then settled out at near 7 nT for
the remainder of the period. The Bz component oscillated throughout the
period with a maximum deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle was
predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced conditions are expected to linger on day one (17 Aug) due to
the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). A combination of CMEs from two filament eruptions observed in the
SW on 14 Aug is expected to disturb the solar wind environment early on
day two (18 Aug) and continue into day three (19 Aug).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to residual CME effects
and the onset of CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on day one (17 Aug) under
continued CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
on day two (18 Aug) due to effects from a combination of CMEs from two
separate filament eruptions observed in the SW on 14 Aug. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (19 Aug) as CME effects
subside.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2015

            Aug 17     Aug 18     Aug 19
00-03UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
03-06UT        4          3          2     
06-09UT        3          4          2     
09-12UT        3          4          2     
12-15UT        3          3          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely early on day one
(Aug 17) under the influence of a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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